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Joshua Stillwagon

  • Associate Professor
  • Division Chair
Academic Division: Economics
CV
781-239-4533
Josh Stillwagon was born and raised in the seacoast area of New Hampshire. He obtained a B.S., M.A., and Ph.D. in economics at the University of New Hampshire in 2005, 2008, and 2013 respectively. His research has been published in the Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics; Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization; Journal of International Money & Finance; Macroeconomic Dynamics (Cambridge University Press); and New England Economic Indicators (Federal Reserve Bank of Boston), among others (see CV for complete listing).

His research focuses primarily on international finance and financial economics; examining empirically the determinants of exchange rates, interest rates, and equity prices. In particular, his work relies on two complementary approaches. The first is using data on traders' asset price forecasts to better assess how they forecast and evaluate risk. The second is to use more advanced statistical techniques allowing for big data, non-linear and feedback effects, and changing relationships over time. This work is being done in conjunction with the Imperfect Knowledge Economics (IKE) program of the Institute for New Economic Thinking (INET).

The empirical dimension of his research guides his teaching philosophy as well; striving to relate theory to real world data and illustrating abstract concepts through historical examples.

Before coming to Babson, Josh was an assistant professor at Trinity College in Hartford, CT and a lecturer at the University of Copenhagen and the University of New Hampshire. In 2009, Josh served as a consultant on the state budget to the N.H. state senate finance committee, providing revenue forecasts and cost analysis. He has also conducted research for the Federal Reserve Bank of Boston on the employment and innovation impacts of state-level energy policies.

Academic Degrees

  • Ph D, University of New Hampshire
  • Certificate, University of Copenhagen
  • MA, University of New Hampshire
  • BS, University of New Hampshire

Awards & Honors

  • 2021 — Babson Research Scholar Award, Babson
  • 2020 — Early Career Research Award, Babson College
  • 2019 — Regional Semi-Finalist with Honorable Mention, Federal Reserve Challenge Competition
  • 2019 — Consulting Grant ($15,000), Institute for New Economic Thinking
  • 2019 — Summer Grant ($10,000), Babson Faculty Research Fund
  • 2018 — Summer Grant ($15,000), Institute for New Economic Thinking
  • 2017 — Summer Grant ($15,000), Institute for New Economic Thinking (INET)
  • 2016 — Regional Semi-Finalist with Honorable Mention, Federal Reserve Challenge Competition
  • 2016 — Grant ($37,780), Institute for New Economic Thinking (INET)
  • 2012 — Young Scholar Initiative, Alfred P. Sloan Foundation and Institute for New Economic Thinking
  • 2009 — Research Creativity Award, University of New Hampshire
  • 2008 — Elizabeth Bogan Award for Best Academic Performance, Economics Department, University of New Hampshire
  • 2008 — Outstanding Master's Paper, University of New Hampshire

Courses

  • Degree Courses 2024

    • ECN 7510 FINANCIAL MACROECONOMIC DATA ANALYSIS

  • Degree Courses 2023

    • ECN 3615 MONEY BANKING & THE ECONOMY

Publications

Journal Articles

  • Stillwagon, J.R. (2021). With Michael D. Goldberg (UNH) and Nevin Cavusoglu (James Madison U) "New Evidence on Portfolio Balance Models of Currency Returns". Journal of Macroeconomics. Vol: 68, Issue: 2.
  • Frydman, R., Mangee, N., Stillwagon, J.R. (2021). How Market Sentiment Drives Forecasts of Stock Returns. Journal of Behavioral Finance. Vol: 22, Issue: 4, Page: 351-367. Taylor & Francis.
  • Stillwagon, J.R. (2020). With Peter Sullivan (U. of Puget Sound) "Markov Switching in Exchange Rate Models: Will More Regimes Help?". Empirical Economics. Vol: 59, Issue: 1, Page: 413-436. Springer. link
  • Wynstra, C.B., Cummings, K.H., Rodgers, V.L., Stillwagon, J.R., Tosti-Kharas, J. (2020). "Teaching 'Beyond the Horizon': Transdisciplinary Approaches". Eugene O'Neill Review, The. Vol: 41, Issue: 1, Page: 69-91. Penn State University Press.
  • Stillwagon, J.R. (2019). With Steve Furnagiev (Goucher College) "Currency Risk Premia: Perceptions of Downside Risk and Deviations from Benchmark Values". International Journal of Finance & Economics. Vol: 24, Issue: 1, Page: 33-48. Wiley. link
  • Stillwagon, J.R. (2018). "TIPS and the VIX: Spillovers from Financial Panic to Breakeven Inflation in an Automated, Nonlinear Modeling Framework". Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics. Vol: 80, Issue: 2, Page: 218-235. Oxford University Press. link
  • Stillwagon, J.R. (2018). "Are Risk Premia Related to Real Exchange Rate Swings? Evidence from I(2) CVARs with Survey Expectations". Macroeconomic Dynamics. Vol: 22, Issue: 2, Page: 255-278. Cambridge University Press. link
  • Stillwagon, J.R. (2018). With Roman Frydman (NYU) "Fundamental Factors and Extrapolation in Stock-Market Expectations: The Central Role of Structural Change". Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization. Vol: 148, Issue: 12, Page: 189-198. link
  • Stillwagon, J.R. (2018). With Katarina Juselius (U. of Copenhagen) "Are Outcomes Driving Expectations or the Other Way Around? An I(2) CVAR Analysis of Interest Rate Expectations in the Dollar/Pound Market". Journal of International Money and Finance. Vol: 83, Issue: 6, Page: 93-105. Elsevier. link
  • Stillwagon, J.R. (2016). "Non-Linear Exchange Rate Relationships: An Automated Model Selection Approach with Indicator Saturation". North American Journal of Economics and Finance. Vol: 37, Issue: 5, Page: 84-109. link
  • Stillwagon, J.R. (2015). "Can the Consumption Capital Asset Pricing Model Account for Traders’ Expected Currency Returns?" . Review of International Economics. Vol: 23, Issue: 5, Page: 1044-1069. link
  • Stillwagon, J.R. (2015). "Testing the Expectations Hypothesis with Survey Forecasts: The Impacts of Consumer Sentiment and the Zero Lower Bound in an I(2) CVAR". Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions & Money. Vol: 35, Issue: 5, Page: 85-101. Elsevier BV. link
  • Stillwagon, J.R. (2014). "Reexamining What Survey Data Say about Currency Risk and Irrationality Using the Cointegrated VAR". Economics Bulletin. Vol: 34, Issue: 3, Page: 1631-1643. link
  • Gittell, R., Stillwagon, J.R. (2011). "Tracking Clean Industry Jobs in New England". New England Economic Indicators. Vol: QIII, Page: 4-11. Federal Reserve Bank of Boston. link

Presentations

  • Over-reaction in Inflation Expectations? An Alternative Interpretation based on Structural Change Stillwagon, J. Frydman, R. 25th Annual Dynamic Econometrics Conference, Bayes Business School, City University of London (2023)
  • Instability in the Taylor Rule: Estimates from Various Diagnostics of Structural Breaks Stillwagon, J. International Conference on Developing Economies and Macroeconomics, Barcelona (2020)
  • New Evidence on Portfolio Balance Models of Currency Returns Cavusoglu, N. Goldberg, M. Stillwagon, J. Chinese Economists Society (CES) Conference, Dongbei University, Dalian, China (2019)
  • How Market Sentiment and Fundamentals Interact in Driving Stock-Return Expectations Stillwagon, J. International Atlantic Economic Society (IAES) Conference, New York (2018)
  • TIPS and the VIX: Spillovers from Financial Panic to Breakeven Inflation in an Automated, Nonlinear Modeling Framework Stillwagon, J. Invited Seminar, Appalachian State University (2017)
  • TIPS and the VIX: Spillovers from Financial Panic to Breakeven Inflation in an Automated, Nonlinear Modeling Framework Stillwagon, J. Invited Seminar, Babson College (2017)
  • TIPS and the VIX: Spillovers from Financial Panic to Breakeven Inflation in an Automated, Nonlinear Modeling Framework Stillwagon, J. Invited Seminar, Sacred Heart University (2016)
  • REH or Behavioral Insights in Stock Market Expectations? Evidence that Both Matter but in Ways Changing Over Time Stillwagon, J. Frydman, R. 17th Oxmetrics Conference, George Washington University (2016)
  • TIPS and the VIX: Spillovers from Financial Panic to Breakeven Inflation in an Automated, Nonlinear Modeling Framework Stillwagon, J. Invited Seminar, University of New Hampshire (2016)
  • TIPS and the VIX: Spillovers from Financial Panic to Breakeven Inflation in an Automated, Nonlinear Modeling Framework Stillwagon, J. 16th Oxmetrics User Conference, Aix Marseille University (2015)
  • Non-linear Exchange Rate Relationships: An Automated Model Selection Approach Stillwagon, J. Eastern Economic Association Conference, New York (2015)
  • Exchange Rate Dynamics and Forecast Errors about Persistently Changing Fundamentals Stillwagon, J. "Cointegration: Theory and Application" in honor of Katarina Juselius, University of Copenhagen (2014)
  • Can the CCAPM Account for Traders' Expected Currency Returns? Stillwagon, J. Eastern Economic Association Conference, Boston (2014)
  • Testing the Expectations Hypothesis with Survey Forecasts: The Impacts of Consumer Sentiment and the Zero Lower Bound in an I(2) CVAR Stillwagon, J. Eastern Economic Association Conference, Boston (2014)
  • Currency Risk and Imperfect Knowledge: CVAR Analyses with Survey Data Stillwagon, J. Invited Seminar, Bryant University (2013)
  • A Keynes-IKE Model of Currency Risk Stillwagon, J. Plenary Conference of the Institute for New Economic Thinking, Hong Kong (2013)
  • Currency Risk: Volatility and Long Swings around Benchmark Values Stillwagon, J. Invited Seminar, Bowling Green State University (2013)
  • Currency Risk: Volatility and Long Swings around Benchmark Values Stillwagon, J. Invited Seminar, College of Charleston (2013)
  • Currency Risk: Volatility and Long Swings around Benchmark Values Stillwagon, J. Invited Seminar, Wichita State University (2013)
  • Currency Risk: Volatility and Long Swings around Benchmark Values Stillwagon, J. Invited Seminar, Murray State University (2013)
  • Currency Risk: Volatility and Long Swings around Benchmark Values Stillwagon, J. Invited Seminar, Franklin & Marshall College (2013)
  • Currency Risk: Volatility and Long Swings around Benchmark Values Stillwagon, J. Invited Seminar, University of Wisconsin-Whitewater (2013)
  • Currency Risk: Volatility and Long Swings around Benchmark Values Stillwagon, J. Invited Seminar, Trinity College (2012)
  • The Puzzling Behavior of Asset Returns: Insights from Prospect Theory Stillwagon, J. Invited Seminar, Connecticut College (2012)
  • The Dynamic Effects of State-level Energy and Environmental Policies on Clean Technology Innovation and Employment Stillwagon, J. Invited Seminar, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston (2011)
  • Does New England have a Green Economy Advantage? Stillwagon, J. Invited Seminar, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston (2010)
  • UNH Economic Impact Study Stillwagon, J. UNH Legislative Breakfast, House of Representatives, Concord, NH (2009)
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Professional Services

  • Member Boston Federal Reserve Challenge Leadership Council (2016 - Present)
  • Reviewer, Journal Article Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance (2021 - 2022)
  • Reviewer, Journal Article Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics (2021 - 2022)
  • Reviewer, Journal Article International Finance (2021 - 2022)
  • Reviewer, Journal Article Journal of Macroeconomics (2021 - 2021)
  • Reviewer, Journal Article Financial Innovation (2021 - 2021)
  • Reviewer, Journal Article Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Finance (2021 - 2021)
  • Reviewer, Journal Article Journal of Behavioral Finance (2021 - 2021)
  • Reviewer, Journal Article Open Economies Review (2021 - 2021)
  • Reviewer, Journal Article Economics Bulletin (2017)
  • Reviewer, Journal Article Journal of International Money & Finance (2017)
  • Reviewer, Journal Article Critical Finance Review (2017)
  • Reviewer, Journal Article Econometrics (2017)
  • Reviewer, Journal Article Empirical Economics (2017)
  • Reviewer, Journal Article Southern Economic Journal (2015)
  • Reviewer, Journal Article Journal of Economic Education (2014)
  • Reviewer, Journal Article Journal of Economic Methodology (2012)
  • Reviewer, Journal Article Politics, Philosophy and Economics (2012)
  • Reviewer, Journal Article Journal of Macroeconomics (2011)
  • Reviewer, Journal Article Review of World Economics (2009)